Nothing illustrates Obama’s desperation at his failure to handle the US economy than Hu Jintao’s visit to US next week and the possibility of China ceding some ground on yuan can hardly be ruled out now; whether it would help the US economy is, of course, a different question altogether. AMCHAM says US companies are facing inconsistent interpretation of rules in China.
Notwithstanding brave claims of consumer spending rising and manufacturing expanding, this one fifth of the world economy is in deep trouble. Hotels and airlines are experiencing declining capacity utilization, clothing imports are declining, and even Manhattan seems set to lose the glitz and the glamour as vacancies are close to 15%; Goldman Sach’s alone is slated to vacate 2 mn sq ft. Several US states are considering legalization of marijuana for fixing budget deficits. Led by antidepressants, prescription drugs sales rose 5.1% to $300 bn last year.
Automobiles population declined 4 mn to about 246 mn in 2009 because Americans scrapped more than what they bought. A rebound this year? The decline has to continue for at least a decade for the economy to alter its consumption composition to regain some hue of sanity. A 20% decline in US consumption means about 4% of global consumption and the world, including China, needs to plan for that. The St is ecstatic with Dow hovering close to 11K, greenback flexing muscles and oil’s gaze fixed at 90 but one thing all this doesn’t mean is jobs. The colored man in the white palace is scared because a fourth of those who put him there are fearful of the future.
World crude steel output declined from 1329 to 1219 mn tons last year, worldwide number of air passengers rose 9.5% in Feb while cargo was up 26.5%, and the $40 bn plus global art market is looking up again. Global solar power capacity leaped from 13.6 to 20 gigawatts last year but still accounts for only 0.5% of generation. China’s manufacturing continues to expand, and Japan expects auto demand to dip 5% this year; wages have declined for 21 consecutive months. Russia is quietly gaining strength as oil and gas output is close to a billion a day.
Notwithstanding the lower decibel of noises about Greece, the noose around the euro seems to be tightening as focus has shifted to Ireland, where banks need $43 bn in new capital and budget deficit has ballooned to 11.7% of GDP.
Cross border M&A deals in Q1 were up 5% to almost $500 bn and acceleration may be in the pipeline as corporates continues to amass cash at a scale never seen before. Worldwide corporate bonds issuance of $738 bn in Q1 was below last year’s trillion but the point is that so far not a billion of that trillion has impacted the real economy.
AT&T networks continue to be jammed because of iPhone and the carrier seems to be virtually in dread of iPad being launched, though not many expect iPad to do as well as iPhone. Vodafone and other UK mobile operators are being asked to cut rates for incoming calls from 4.3 to 0.5 pence per minute, Dell is being investigated for having misreported financials since 2001, and Verizon says the new healthcare bill will cost it $970 mn because it will have to provide some medical benefits to retirees.
BofA, like most US banks, wants to grow globally, organically; they know the rest of the world is yet to traverse the path the US already has. Japan Post already has nearly $2 tn in deposits but is considering doubling the limit for individual deposits to over $200,000; privatisation is also being discussed.
Geely of China is preparing to pump $900 mn in Volvo. Toyota has lost over $15 bn in market value and its electronic controls are being examined by NASA, though the US consumer, ignoring all charges, gave it a thumbs up in March. Hyundai worldwide sales grew 36% last month, to 317,973 vehicles, and Bombardier Q4 revenue declined marginally to $5.35 bn. Total, Shell and Chevron are unable to find buyers for refineries in Europe, and Macarthur Coal (Australia) has rejected a $3 bn bid by Peabody of US (world’s biggest listed coal miner).
After some rumours, Harrods has clarified that it isn’t up for sale, Cephalon of US has failed to win approval for its prescription drug that promises to treat jet lag, and Bright Food (Shanghai) has offered $1.6 bn for sugar business of CSR (Australia) as Cargill too is reportedly interested. Christie’s is being sued by a billionaire for selling counterfeit wine and Samsung’s indicted CEO Lee Kun-hee is back on the board of Samsung Electronics after an official pardon in December.
Spain is considering steps to check illegal downloading of movies from the Internet, following airlines, hotels too have started charging extras for baggage holding and even service, and California has finally decided to pay doles electronically, rather than mailing 41 mn checks a year.
Flight attendants of Spanish airline Air Comet protested by stripping publicly last week as they haven’t been paid wages for nine months, and a parliamentary committee in Belgium has voted to ban the full Islamic face veil. German scientists say a chocolate a day keeps heart attacks away.
Iraq wants to convert Saddam’s palaces into tourist resorts, Mexican drug lords have started using weapons against the army also and pilots taking antidepressants have been allowed to fly passenger planes in the US.
Tech savvy robberies involving billions are in but the good old ways of digging a tunnel below a bank are still live and kicking; it happened in a Paris bank last week. OTC derivatives trade is 4 times GDP in Mexico, 14 times in S Africa, and in the US, it is, well, Obama wants to double exports in five years. Buy an iPhone and download porn in your spare time so you can avoid marijuana.
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