The world inched a tad closer to a consensus on the need to impose a financial transactions tax last week as UK, France, Germany and Austria have backed the idea and China doesn’t seem to be averse. Paul Krugman said “a financial transactions tax is an idea whose time has come” and it seems that within the US also there is significant support. Some Democrats have proposed the tax, though the administration opposes it. Speculation turnover is currently estimated at around $1500 tn or about 25 times the world GDP. However, implementation may take considerable time. Generally, Europe seems to be more willing to alter policy than US, while Japan continues to maintain its traditional stoic silence.
On the status-quo side, Morningstar created some ripples last week when it released ratings (apparently unsolicited) for about 100 companies, a move that may unsettle the ensconced trio of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch.
Though holiday sales in US are not expected to alter drastically, the consumer seems to be focused on low price toys and books, while for pricier items like LCD TVs, prices are down like never before. Most fund managers are increasing exposure to debt and are holding more cash than before.
China’s manufacturing has apparently accelerated even further, GDP is expected to grow 10.5% this quarter, and notwithstanding the stable exchange rate regime in place, 12 month forward yuan (non-deliverable) is commanding a premium of well over 2%. India too is growing at around 8% and the rupee has been relatively strong in recent weeks.
Dubai has put real estate projects worth about $300 bn on hold as demand for office and commercial space has plunged. Worldwide (130 cities), rents for expensive offices were down 7.7% in year to 30 Sep 2009. Korea now has per capita household debt of $15,000. China has turned a net importer of metallurgical coal as its steel output may exceed 600 mn tons this year.
Though the yen eased last week, Japan’s economy may undergo some deep changes now since the govt seems to favor a strong currency; a former banker says the yen may rise to 80 by March next. Analysts expect M&A activity to intensify and overseas acquisitions may also accelerate; last year Japanese companies bought over 440 overseas companies.
In Ireland distress sales of champagne, houses and luxury cars have been reported, 70% of Italians have said in a survey they don’t think the crisis is over, and Kazakhstan, like Russia, seems to be serious about developing manufacturing to reduce dependence on commodities. Kenya’s economy, which suffered from violence last year, seems to be recovering.
While politicians are haggling over climate issues, renewable energy industry seems to be moving full steam ahead and just may remain to contain total carbon dioxide emissions within 1,300 bn tons for the period 2000-2050. Investments in renewable energy are expected to rise to $200 bn in 2010 and LNG usage is growing so much that possibility of gas prices attaining parity with oil in btu terms in the near future can hardly be ruled out now.
Chevron has started work on its $40 bn LNG project in Australia, Brazil’s state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro says it will further enlarge its investment plans of $174 bn and Total has investment plans worth about $18 bn in place.
GM has sold one percent of its JV to partner SAIC, which now has 51%, and has announced plans to set up a new JV with the same partners that would sell small cars in India. Peugeot of France is building an auto assembly unit in Russia in JV with Mitsubishi of Japan, while Panasonic is buying rechargeable batteries maker Sanyo Electric and plans to treble output by 2011, and Sharp has filed an IPR suit against Samsung while Mitsui has sued LG Chem for patent infringement.
European steelmaker Corus, owned by Tatas of India, is mothballing its UK plant (cutting 1700 jobs) as several regular buyers have cancelled contracts. Cisco has received acceptance for 89.1% of Tandberg of Norway, which makes it the largest player in video conferencing.
GE has finalised purchase of Vivendi’s 20% stake in NBC, which would now be owned 51% by Comcast, the large cable operator in the US. Siemens JV with Nokia is losing some serious money. Google is apparently yielding to pressure from Newscorp and other media organisations, though contours of the new regime aren’t clear as yet. BofA has raised $19.3 bn by selling shares. Competition for rescuing Japan Airlines, between American Airlines and Delta, is apparently heating up.
Population of pets is growing in Japan and, like humans, the pets too are getting older; over one half of 27 mn cats and dogs are more than seven years old. Hong Kong, where a graveyard can cost USD 50,000 and even space for an urn costs upwards of USD 2,000, is seeking technological solutions from Japan where urns are stored in vast underground facilities from where they can be retrieved by automated systems.
Even as the Swiss have voted (in a referendum) to ban construction of minarets atop mosques and neighbor Germany just may be preparing to follow suit, Hamas has banned females in Gaza from pillion riding on mobikes driven by men and from dancing in public functions.
In the US, charter schools have entered the M&A arena and the possibility of the likes of Harvard, Yale and Stanford getting listed and launching hostile takeovers for each other cannot be ruled out now. Meanwhile, municipal bodies are still paying speculators for getting out of complex deals they signed without understanding the implications.
Somebody in China is listing cultural artifacts looted in the past and now owned by leading museums, the purpose being to bring them back. The Afghan govt is trying to convince its farmers not to grow heroin, while Mexico is struggling to control open sales of fake invoices of McDonald’s and Burger King that the buyer can use for inflating business expenses and saving taxes.
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