Even as US was celebrating 3.5% GDP growth in Q3, unemployment entered double digits, gold soared close to $1100, oil refused to step below 75 last week and the euro was impatient to cross 150. Nobel Laureate Stiglitz said the US government should have nationalised banks when the crisis broke out.
Business bankruptcies in US in Jan-Oct rose 16% to 74,832 but don’t expect the US to go broke. National debt is still only 50% of GDP, compared to Japan’s 200%. Trade and current account deficits are both at around half-a-trillion, which, as the yankees say, is peanuts, for Uncle Sam. A new Disneyland is to be set up in Shanghai that will have an area of 1,700 acres, compared to 25,000 acres of the original.
Following China, India has also bought 200 tons of gold from IMF, S&P is threatening to lower South Africa’s rating, unless it lowers fiscal deficit, and Russia says stimulus is on until further notice. Iceland is showing signs of stabilisation and has cut interest rate by 100 basis points. China expects auto sales to touch 13.5 mn units in calendar 2009. Czech Republic industrial output is down 12% and it is preparing to join the euro zone by 2015.
The cash hoard of US banks and MNCs needs to be watched more carefully than US retail sales or bank bankruptcies in UK. Top 500 non-financial firms in US are holding nearly a trillion dollars in cash (and equivalents). Four largest banks have 1.5 tn in liquidity. Add a couple of trillion to cover EU and Japan and one reckons there is surplus cash of about 5 tn in the hands of those who can double the cost of tomorrow’s food or make it impossible for you to send your child to university, by a snap of their fingers. Its only a matter of time before some corporate chieftain offers to buy out a Honduras or a Haiti, offering all citizens permanent jobs sans voting rights. Meanwhile, the man on the street is still refusing to feel scared of swine flu; most governments are holding more vaccines than there are people willing to take the shot, offered free in most cases.
AIG continues to be castigated for having paid CDS obligations for bailing out recipients. Chase has quietly paid a fine of $75 mn, without admitting it bribed some county officials in Alabama. CIT’s bankruptcy has thousands of mid-sized businesses in the US worried. Fannie Mae is allowing owners of foreclosed homes to lease the same houses but wants further federal aid of $15 bn to keep doing so.
BNP Paribas is being hailed as one of the winners of the crisis, giving President Sarkozy enough confidence to tell wife Carla not to interfere in politics! With client withdrawals now close to $100 bn and still growing, UBS continues to lose money, though Delaware, where almost half of quoted American companies are domiciled, offers more secrecy than any other place on the planet. Lloyds of London is planning the world’s largest ever rights issue - $22 bn.
Morgan Stanley is looking for a buyer willing to pay a billion for its 34.3% stake in Chinese investment bank CICC because it is unable to play a meaningful role in management. China Bank has started offering mortgages to homeowners in UK and, along with many others, including Sir Branson’s Virgin, may be looking for acquiring troubled banks.
Exceed, Chinese maker of mid-priced sportswear, has got listed on NY and intends to set up 2,200 new stores at home, and British apparel label Escada has been snapped up by Indian steel tycoon Mittal’s daughter-in-law Megha Mittal.
Casino operator Las Vegas Sands is planning a $2.5 bn IPO in Hong Kong, though 22 gaming stocks plunged 10% in Oct. Samsung is gung ho as LCD TV sales are up 24% this year and global market share has risen from 21.5 to 23% in Q3, way ahead of LG and Sony. ČEZ of the Czech Republic is being hailed as the world’s most profitable energy firm, the secret being ownership of two nuclear plants and captive coal mines of its thermal stations.
Airbus was shocked last week when South Africa cancelled an order for eight military aircraft worth $6.2 bn. Warren Buffett has acquired control of railroad operator Northern Santa Fe, which carries most of the coal in the US, for $44 bn, which includes equity already held.
Ford surprised markets with strong Q3 results while GM’s decision to retain Opel has angered workers who had agreed to concessions because it was to be bought by Magna. J&J is to cut 7-8K jobs to save $1.5 bn in wages, Stanley Works has bought Black & Decker for $3.46 bn, hoping to cut costs by $350 mn, France Telecom is stung by allegations that 25 of its employees have committed suicide over the last two years because of its ham-handed policies, and Russia’s plan to triple excise duty on beer next year has beer producers, including Carlsberg, worried.
At least 5000 racehorses were purchased in California last fiscal (to Sep 2009), though it costs $60K a year to maintain one, Taipei now has hotels exclusively for pets, which charge $14 a day for single occupancy. Fashion models in Pakistan defied the Taliban last week but in Somalia, people have stopped listening to Indian movie songs on their mobile phones after threats from extremists. US retailers are estimated to have lost $15 bn last year because of thefts by employees.
Obama announced a $4 bn package for schools so US kids could compete against folks in Beijing and Bangalore. That’s no more than what US kids spend hanging out at malls and McDonald’s, and on buying marijuana, every month. Mr President, Sir, for salvaging the future of those born, and to be born, this century, you shall have to first ‘kick the asses,’ of their parents.
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