That the technology sector is heading for deep structural changes became clear last week when AT&T’s sterling performance in Q3 was attributed to its exclusive deal with Apple for iPhone, Dell said it expects PC sales to grow because of Windows 7, Nokia accused Apple of patent infringement, and the US moved closer to tighter regulation of Internet service providers which would bar them from blocking content. AT&T’s wireless data usage has jumped 50-fold since launch of iPhone in 2007, and that by itself says things are going to change drastically in not-too-distant a future.
Sun Microsystems is losing $100 mn a month and profits of eBay are down nearly 30%, despite Quelle (remember the German mail-order giant?) liquidating assets. On the other hand, mobile operators are moving to tie-up with banks for money transfer through cell phones and even the highly successful Octopus cards of Hong Kong is thinking on similar lines.
Besides the way the world communicates, brand builders are also watching Apple’s success as it may have implications even for the likes of Gucci and Louis Vuitton. With quarterly revenue of over $10 bn, Apple is being described as the new Sony, though Sony itself doesn’t appear to be very comfortable. Gucci, Louis Vuitton and YSL are struggling to make ends meet. Besides technology, perhaps one reason is they have all been hiking brand premiums and cutting manufacturing costs at the same time, assuming the consumer would remain a perpetual sucker.
HR firm Adecco has bought its rival MPS for $1.3 bn, New York Times is cutting a further 100 journalism jobs, and UPS handled 2.4% fewer packages in Q3. After suffering delinquencies in consumer loans, PE firm Cerberus is now funding guns and bullets.
Following HeidelbergCement’s success, Continental AG is planning to issue junk bonds (CDS 500 basis points) but Daimler is planning to invest $4.5 bn for developing compact models in Europe.
Americans continue to cut consumption of bottled water but Coke sales in Q3 leaped 15% in China and 9% in Mexico. DuPont revenue fell 18% in Q3 and Caterpillar revenue is down 44% this year but Hyundai is catching up fast with the big auto boys, expecting to sell over 3mn units worldwide this year.
Toshiba has launched a fuel cell Dynario that would make use of cell phones and laptops easier while travelling. Batteries in general are witnessing a huge research effort, though costs are coming down only slowly.
Currency volatility continues to be a problem for industrial companies, the latest example being Nestle, which says strength of the SFr pushed its sales down 2.2% in Jan-Sep. If a European firm bought its raw materials from the US last week, it cannot compete with a rival who paid this week!
American Express card defaults are down, Invesco is buying Morgan Stanley’s retail investment management business for $1.5 bn, Goldman Sachs profit tripled in Q3 and JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo too are doing well. Well, if one can borrow interest-free from Uncle Sam for buying T-bills that yield over 3%, how can there by any losses?
Bernanke says Asians should spend more and Americans should save more, without finding out whether Asians are saving more or Americans are spending more. Besides revaluation of currencies, prescriptions for Asia include expansion of social safety mechanisms!
The financial services industry is charging a tax on all transactions in the world, be it China’s purchases of iron ore from Australia or Japan’s sales of automobiles to Africa. It is the shrinkage in this tax base that is making America uncomfortable. America will have to cut reliance on this tax and start working for earning its bread and butter. No algorithms are needed to say that at least one half of GDP of the world’s ten largest countries has to come from manufacturing.
Obama said Wednesday he wants to refocus stimulus spending from the St to small business but refused to recognize that the size of the pie is not infinite. For making the small grow, the big have to be curbed. “There is room for everyone to grow” is a concept that needs to be re-examined and revised.
One gram of heroin costs $3 in Kabul but is sold for $100 to consumers in the developed world, and yet a US court has held Los Angeles ban on pharmacies dispensing marijuana illegal. Some in Brunei want husbands who cheat on their wives to be whipped, some rich Germans want a tax on wealth to be restored for funding the government and WestJet Airlines of the US has come out with a ‘super economy’ class where one can pay a little extra and make sure the middle seat is vacant. Meanwhile, Norway continues to publish all details of all citizens’ income and wealth.
Brazil has imposed a 2% tax on purchases of equities and bonds by foreigners, Japan’s national debt is set to touch 200% of GDP next year, and the growing resentment of the developed world against China’s purchases of natural resources worldwide is coming close to being economic apartheid. China’s trade with LatAm is growing at a scorching pace of 40% a year while investments have leaped 80% a year since 2003. LatAm doesn’t need American money as badly as it used to because US, EU and Japan are no more in a position to borrow all that the developing world is in a position to lend.
China’s stunning 9% growth in Q3 shouldn’t really buoy spirits, in Beijing or in New York, since recalcitrant poker-playing that churns equities, commodities and currencies 25-50 times every year is basically incompatible with sustained and equitable economic growth. Obama hasn’t shown, so far, the will to bestow on an average household the right to say that ownership of the house is not going to change hands a dozen times everyday. The issue is not the salary of Vikram Pandit. It is Pandit playing poker with hard earned money of honest, tax paying citizens.
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