Alan Greenspan nonchalantly declared last week that another global financial crisis was inevitable, without specifying a timeframe. Germany and France want to start discussing exit (from stimulus plans) strategies, Gordon Brown says it is too early, Japan is maintaining its traditional silence and China says let each nation do its own thing.

Redistribution of power at IMF is being debated but emphasis upon bankers’ salaries seems stronger than even tax havens, which generate more corruption generates than the rest of the world taken together.

After mortgages, the St has reportedly started looking at securitization of life insurance policies of those who can’t keep them going. Life settlement isn’t a new concept. Investors begin to pay premiums that holders are unable to, in exchange for a down payment and the payout at maturity. Bankers will now bundle millions of such policies and issue bonds against them. There are $26 tn worth of policies in force in US alone.

Prices of photovoltaic cells have already plunged 50% but output still seems to be expanding left and right. Showa Shell of Japan is setting up a $1.1 bn 900 mw plant. Domestic water heaters have become so inexpensive ($220 for a standard home) that China already has over 30 mn of them. Besides solar, nuclear energy too is imploding like never before. Over 50 plants are at different stages of construction around the world. China expects to expand its nuclear power capacity from 9100 to over 25,000 mw over the next few years. With so much going on in terms of non-oil energy, one needs to rework long term forecasts of oil price.

While Nestle is looking at a growth of 20% in its China sales this year, on the back of the still lingering effects of last year’s tainted-milk scandal, Kraft Foods of US wants to buy Cadbury for $16.7 bn, to create a “global powerhouse in snacks, confectionary and quick meals,” though one wonders why it hasn’t gone after McDonald’s or KFC at its home turf. McDonald’s has failed to stop a small Indian restaurant in Malaysia from using McCurry as its brand.

Delta has initiated steps that may develop into a hostile bid for Japan Airlines, forcing its CEO to stand outside a sales office, handing out leaflets appealing for patronage of Japanese customers, as Japan’s new govt may not bail out the bleeding carrier. While overall passenger traffic worldwide is down by somewhere between 10% and 20%, revenue from premium seats is down 40%.

Airlines are still not willing to look at the difference between price of a normal (or discounted) ticket and a premium seats. Surely there has to be a maximum multiple beyond which passengers won’t pay. In premium clothing, what is available for $50-100 at respectable Zaras and H&Ms is sought to be retailed at over $3000 by LVMH and Prada. Of course there is a market at such prices also but the name of the game is to guess the volumes.

Bharti of India is apparently making some progress in its attempts to merge with MTN of South Africa, Vodafone and O2 are competing for acquiring T-Mobile from Deutsche Telecom, and Zain, the largest phone firm in Kuwait, is looking for a buyer. Consolidation in mobile telephony is generally expected to continue.

China Merchant is the latest among Chinese securities firms to get into PE, as overseas investments by Chinese companies continue to surge; ChinaPetro has received a $30 bn loan to fund overseas acquisitions. Chinatrust Financial of Taiwan has reportedly offered $2.4 bn for AIG's Taiwan unit, which is rumoured to be more than what AIG itself expected. Meanwhile, UBS continues to lose clients and managers at almost the same pace. Citi gleefully said last week UBS may not recover until 2011. Warren Buffett, who still has liquidity of nearly $25 bn, has started selling insurance coverage for foreclosed real estate occupied by defaulting borrowers.

China’s Tengzhong’s purchase of Hummer from GM has finally been rejected by the Chinese govt for ‘lack of detail,’ while Opel seems to be going to Magna. GM has, incidentally, started offering to take back new cars, if returned less than 60 days from purchase, no questions asked.

The US has won a WTO case against European subsidies to Airbus but a deeper question being asked is if the billions handed out to banks and automakers by the US are distorting trade? How would Toyota, Honda and Hyundai be performing today, had GM not been bailed out? Had Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac not been lifted out of impending bankruptcies, would it have benefited investors, realtors and construction companies in Europe and Asia?

India has started emerging as a major exporter of passenger cars, Hong Kong has quietly started emerging as the new hot spot for raising money for firms from all over the world, France’s Sarkozy is trying to sell 36 fighter jets worth $5.7 bn to Brazil, Chile’s economy is shrinking at a rate of 2.7%, and Russia says its economy has started looking up, which is perhaps true as oil prices are steady at around $70.

China has succeeded in beating down iron ore spot prices to the level of contracts, making Rio Tinto’s suspension of negotiations virtually redundant, though it is still trying to figure out if its air carriers did something wrong in hedging fuel purchases last year.

Water is being rationed in drought-stricken Mexico, G8 continue to ignore their past, pointing fingers at the developing world for emitting carbon, obesity has started rising even in the Czech Republic and media companies liquidity is at a record high even as most of them are firing writers and journalists left and right.

Somebody asked last week whether The Titanic had stopped sinking. Don’t worry about the ship. Find a tycoon’s unhappy wife travelling to the promised land, and take her to her husband’s Ferrari in the cargo hold.

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