China’s electricity consumption, perhaps the most important indicator of world manufacturing, was down 3.5% in May, global chips sales may decline by over 20% in 2009, and Japanese offices have asked officers to leave ties and jackets home so air-conditioning costs can be cut. New York has started experimenting with shared taxis. Boeing and Airbus are bracing for sharply lower deliveries but airlines are cramming more seats into operating jets, which will not only help cut their losses but will also boost demand for medicare.
Real economies may take a few years to find their feet back but the trillions that were printed over the last six years haven’t evaporated into thin air. Last week the Dow was up 263 points to 8763, Nasdaq rose 75 points to 1850, Nikkei was up nearly 250 points at 9768 and the dollar rose a tad against the yen and the euro. The 19 stress-tested US financial institutions have already raised nearly $100 bn in equity and debt and more are in the offing.
As the players on the Street got busy again, ECB employees were on streets, protesting proposed paycuts. China is on a lending binge of its own – fresh loans in 2009 are expected to top 9 tn yuan and outstanding loans are now twice GDP. Even as some sane elements are worrying about the US’s impending bankruptcy, markets in US treasuries are booming like never before. Some are talking about the scene shifting from normal treasuries to TIPS (inflation protected bills), of which only about $500 bn are outstanding at the moment. Indecipherable the scenario may be but what cannot be disputed is that US, Canada and Europe now account for less than one half of world GDP, compared to their earlier share of over 60%.
In corporate news Stanchart announced plans for issuing bonds worth 3.5 billion yuan in China, several Countrywide officials, including co-founder Mozilo, have been accused of insider trading, Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil are setting up an oil JV with Venezuela, and Citigroup and GM (filed for bankruptcy) are being taken off the Dow, to be replaced by Travelers and Cisco. Chinese machinery maker Tengzhong’s purchase of GM’s Hummer may not be approved because China favours acquisitions of only auto parts firms, not car producers.
AIG is selling its 72 Wall Street headquarters building, Wal-Mart is to hire 22,000 this year for 150 new stores, Gucci, Chloe SAS and Alfred Dunhill are pursuing counterfeiting cases against some Chinese firms, Bausch & Lomb paid out $250 mn to those who suffered from a defective solution for cleaning contact lenses, and Trevira, German polyester firm owned by India’s Reliance, filed for bankruptcy. India’s Bharti moved a little closer to swallowing Africa’s largest cell phone firm MTN.
While the US Senate is still debating Obama’s stimulus, China has already built 245 kms of highways, 20K kms of rural roads, 214,000 low cost houses and a million sq ft of airport buildings under its stimulus plan. Rural purchases of automobiles and durables are growing like never before and manufacturing output has started growing perceptibly. However, demand is being created in China, for goods made in China; it would be naïve to expect the Chinese stimulus to lift the world economy, though global demand for key industrial commodities has already started perking up.
The growing number of deals China is signing with countries like Congo, Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Russia has started worrying IMF. Australian miner Rio Tinto pulling out of its deal with Chinalco was perhaps for reasons that were as much cultural as economic. Nevertheless, CIC, China’s sovereign wealth fund, is set to increase its holdings in Morgan Stanley when the latter sells stock worth $2.2 bn.
When Obama tried to ‘reach out’ to the Islamic world last Tuesday, some were impressed by his sincerity of purpose, some were disappointed by his call for a Jewish homeland instead of a Jewish state, some said he had gone soft on Iran and some even said he was more Hussein than Barack. Notwithstanding the standing ovation at Cairo University, Obama’s speech writers were not even close to Bush aides. Perhaps Gordon Brown should consider hiring some of Bush’s erstwhile speech writers. The outcome of Obama visit? Well, it is difficult to smell peace, as of now, though some insist Muslims will outnumber Jews in Israel sooner than expected and that just may end the apparently endless imbroglio.
Sabres and submarines unsuccessfully scoured the Atlantic for debris of the Air France jet with 228 aboard and US firm Odyssey Marine was ordered by a US judge to handover the $500 mn treasure it had found in 2007 to Spain, though Odyssey insists the coins belonged to individual travelers and not the Spanish govt. Scientists in US unveiled the world’s most powerful laser comprising 192 beams that can travel a million feet a second and converge on a pencil eraser.
Bill Gates urged billionaires last week to give away most of their wealth to charitable causes, prompting some to insist Bill’s three kids were the most unlucky children in the world as one percent of dad’s wealth is … a bit too uncharitable on part of dad, even if it can be measured in billions.
Munich airport found cocaine embedded in three simple tablecloths that weighed five kgs, and tattoo artists are setting up parlours in California that charge $500 for fashionable designs on butts and bums, though finally some ‘straights’ have decided to support the golden state’s proposed ban on same-sex marriages.
So where are growth, globe and globalization going? The numbers are too fuzzy but there are some grandma prescriptions. If Obama really wants to get a grip on health care by August, all he has to do is order all eateries to stay closed every Monday. US health care spending will plunge from 2.5 to 2 tn in eight weeks, productivity in offices will leap and perhaps some pharma companies would join GM on St 11.
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